The Florida Retirement Forecast Report

Date:
From: Robert Cotter, Ph.D.
Re: Your Florida Retirement

Welcome and thank you for requesting this new 2011 Special Report.

As promised, in this report you will find:

1. Current Florida Home Price appreciation (depreciation) data and analysis.

2. An in depth look at Real Estate Sales Activity in the State ... is it time to buy?

3. Info on some Best Places to Retire in Florida.

Since you have arrived here, your interests may fall into one of the following important categories:

You are starting an initial investigation into relocating or retiring to Florida (the winters where you currently reside may also be too darn cold and snowy and you are looking for a change!).

You are seeking up-to-date info on housing prices trends, best places to retire in FL, and/or hot new areas and purchase opportunities given the real estate market crash that has occurred in the state.

You currently have a residence or rental property in Florida and are developing a strategy moving forward (i.e., should you sell, rent out, or hold on to your real estate asset?).

Florida is a beautiful state and is still a #1 destination for those lucky enough to be retiring or in a position to relocate.

The changing real estate conditions in Florida are also making it a historic buying time for many new retirees.

In fact, as we move deeper into 2011, the real estate market has retreated to a level with current home prices on par with 2003!!

Florida Home Appreciation Rates:

So let's get right into some of the detail of what's going on in the state by looking at annual home price appreciation (or depreciation) rates for the past 20 years:

Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates: Florida

Year	Rate %	Year	Rate %	Year	Rate %
1980	11.31	1991	3.10	2002	10.57
1981	5.06	1992	2.12	2003	11.78
1982	6.90	1993	2.99	2004	19.57
1983	2.46	1994	-0.81	2005	27.27
1984	1.50	1995	4.37	2006	8.31
1985	2.59	1996	1.18	2007	-6.74
1986	4.39	1997	4.36	2008	-19.83
1987	2.76	1998	4.84	2009	-10.37
1988	4.88	1999	3.69	2010	-5.68
1989	3.90	2000	8.14	2011	TBD
1990	0.24	2001	10.63

Source: Florida House Price Index

This data speaks to the Florida (and nationwide) housing price crash, especially the red ink above right.

The worst appreciation over a 5 year period in Florida was -32% in the 5 years ending with December 2010. As you'll see below, there is a new chapter being written in the Florida real estate story for 2011.

Further Summary and Analysis:

Historical Florida Home Price Appreciation

Last 20 Years   +98%
Last 10 Years   +42%
Last 5 Years   -32%
Last Year   -5.7%
Decline from All Time High   -36.98%

The above data provides a nice summary and overview of what has happened to Florida’s real estate prices over many years. When looking at this data, remember that these are average values. Some markets were hit much harder than the above data would lead one to believe.

The forecast for this year (2011) suggests that the market may still be searching for the bottom, but the rate of depreciation is in a marked transition given the above indicators. The Florida real estate market is still underperforming in many FL locales relative to the rest of the country.

One thing seems clear though, the rate of decline is slowing from the rapid fall of 2008-2009 indicating an impending leveling off.

And as you read this report, many retirees and investors are taking advantage of this historic opportunity to reside or own property in the beautiful state of Florida.

Buyers are Active:

So that's some current price data trends and analysis, now let's turn our attention ot the other side of the equation, the home sales data as that shows a very different side of the "state of the state".

Statewide existing home sales in Florida have shown positive momentum in 2011.

In other words, Folks are Buying as the Prices Decline!

18,522 single-family existing homes sold in March 2011 for a 12% increase in sales over the same period a year ago. Also, there was a 24% rise in statewide year-to-date condominium sales compared to a year ago, with a total of 9,703 units sold compared to 7,830 in 3/2010!

The statewide existing condo median sales price in March 2011 was $84,300; in 3/2010 it was $94,800 for an 11 percent decrease. Great news for savy buyers.

Florida's median existing-home sales price in March 2011 was $126,000; a year earlier it was $136,000 marking a 7 percent decrease. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less. Hence, people are taking advantage of greatly reduced home prices!

Some Hot Areas:

A recent list of America’s “100 Best Small Cities” contained three in Florida. They are shown in the accompanying table:

Rank	City	Jobs/Economy	Housing Affordability	Education	Arts/Leisure	Health
48	Coconut Creek	B	A	B	B	B
44	Coral Springs	B	A	B	B	B
72	Wellington	B	B	A	B	B
Ratings: A=Top Third; B=Middle Third; C=Bottom Third

Source: Money Magazine

These areas are worth noting, and possibly investigating for Florida retirement, because they are not names that one hears a lot about when discussing Florida locales. The categories that were evaluated to generate this list are also shown in the table. As can be seen, these ratings were quite favorable.

It should be added that multiple screens or filters were employed in this study. For example, places were excluded where the median family income was more than 200% or less than 85% of the state median. This and other factors should be kept in mind when interpreting these results.

The data in the following table presents a snapshot of some of the basic demographics of these cities:

City	County	Population (2009)	Median Household Income ($)
Coconut Creek	Broward	50544	54457
Coral Springs	Broward	126518	75239
Wellington	Palm Beach	54659	82182

Now this represents just the tip of the iceberg in regards to great Florida retirement or FL relocation destinations.

The reality is that "Florida is on sale" and in most of Florida's 150 micropolitans:

Motivated buyers are buying dream homes statewide at 2003 prices!

2011 will be a year of great opportunity for both buyers and sellers. A glance of the numbers above illustrate the changing tide of the Florida real estate scene.

At this writing, the internet and newspapers are filled with incredible incentives for new Florida retirees, and land developers and real estate agents are "laying out the red carpet" for your business.

Quite often the Buy Now or Miss Out mindset can take hold and tragic mistakes can be made by eager, yet uniformed retirees.

Unfortunately, these mistakes can have devastating effects on their chances for a fulfilling, yet practical retirement in Florida. They are effectively "rolling the dice" with their hard earned retirement savings.

My journey into FL retirement has been an incredible odyssey with its share of triumphs, challenges, and a multitude of discoveries.

Because of my inquisitive nature, I decided to document this journey not only for myself, but for family and friends about to begin their own retirement adventures.

I have also been taking note of the tales from the scores of retirees I've met over the past 20+ years. They each have their stories to tell. Some of them might just break your heart as they are cautionary tales for Florida retirees. Others are models of how to relocate to Florida seemlessly and build a a wonderful life in the Sunshine State.

By combining this research with my own personal experience, I have assembled the most powerful and useful collection of Florida retirement strategies, tips, best kept secrets, and resources available anywhere...and I'd like to share them with you in the New 2011, 8th edition of "The Florida Retirement Book - An Insider's Guide".

In fact, the above examination of current home prices, buying trends, and hot cities is a tiny excerpt from the most authoritative and up-to-date resource on Florida retirement. Discover more below:

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Here's just a sneak peak of what you will discover inside the New 2011, 8th Edition:

Comprehensive, up-to-date Home Price and Sales Analysis for Florida's top retirement locations.

A detailed, complete Florida Condo Sales Report (Buyers Are Active!).

A sobering analysis of Florida's Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis, and how it affects you.

The 10 Best Cities in which to "buy now" (they are probably not where you think).

Has Florida's Real Estate Bubble Burst or is it just a fast leak?

Crime Rate Rankings for Florida Cities & Metro Areas (what you must know).

What Location is best for you? Each or Florida's 67 counties has it's own personality.

10 questions you must ask your Realtor (these will save you $ and heartbreak).

What you must know about “Bulk Sales” of Condos.

An examination of Metropolitan and "Micropolitan" Areas (top 10 analysis).

A comparison of Condos vs. Individual Houses (which is right for your needs)?

Beware of the "Model Home" Trap.

Is Ocean or Gulf Front Property Really Worth The Added Cost?

The cost of living is low in Florida! Learn why and take advantage.

What you must know about condominium fees.

Considering a Golf Course Community? Be prepared for the costs!

Should you rent out your Florida Home to help pay for it?

The urgent Developing Threat To Manufactured Housing Parks.

Why you really need to check out the Medical Facilities and Practitioners.

Florida’s Top Hospitals (including specialities).

and Much More Information critical to the prospective Florida retiree.

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The state of Florida and it's retirement communities are in a constant state of change. I am passionate about continuing to discover and document these changes.

In fact, the book has already had numerous, timely content updates including vital information on the recent real estate/mortgage crisis, property taxes, real estate, hidden costs, hurricanes, undervalued areas, and much more.

When a new version of the book is updated, we will notify all those who have purchased an Ebook or Hardcopy with the Free Updates and email instructions on how to easily and immediately download the full, updated version (or just the new sections if you prefer) for free. You can also just read the updates online if you'd like.

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